AI – Past and Present

Photo credit goes to Geralt.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

In the past few months Artificial Intelligence (AI) has sprung from just “important” to “crucial” in the business news.  Everyone is discussing AI and how it will change our lives.  Will it eliminate your job or make your life better?  Before I touch on the probable effects of AI on commercial real estate, please allow me to better define the many terms involved in artificial intelligence.  My analysis has come from various internet sources, such as Investopedia, Amazon AWS and TechTalk

Technically, AI has been around since the 1950’s when computers were invented, as in the broadest sense, computer generated information is artificial.  As computing power has expanded exponentially, doubling every 2 years, according to Moore’s Law, so computers are beginning to approach human intelligence levels. Here are some examples of AI you will recognize.  First, there is HAL from 2001 A Space Odyssey, where HAL, who controls the function of the space craft apparently malfunctions and kills four of the five astronauts on the way to Jupiter.  This raises the question we still must answer on the advisability of giving AI so much control over our lives. Then, in 1997, Chess Grand Master Gary Kasparov faces IBM’s Deep Blue, which eventually defeats Kasparov in a six-game match, 3 ½ to 2 ½. Kasparov said that he developed an unorthodox strategy, drawing out the game, to try to overload Deep Blue, but he still lost in the end. Deep Blue could analyze up to 200m chess moves a second based on moves loaded into the computer by its designers. But the new AI chips can preform 30-trillion per second; that’s 30×1,000,000×1,000,000; there are literally acres of chips in a data center.

Machine Learning

But that was 26 years ago, and now we have Machine Learning, or ML, that actually goes beyond its programing and learns on its own.  We know the loveable Jarvis, the AI super computer valet to Tony Stark in the Iron Man movie. Jarvis is capable of creating and completing tasks, then creating new tasks and even prioritizing to-do lists without human intervention, according to Alok Singh. Less lovable AI dramatic figures include Skynet in Terminator and The Agents in Matrix.  We have our own Jarvis though in Alexa, which is narrow conversational AI designed to be voice assistants for us in very specific tasks.  Alexa learns from your decisions in order to anticipate your request.   Over time Alexa and her cousin Siri, have been enhanced with newer applications of Machine Learning, by which the data and algorithms imitate the way humans learn so that the computer can make informed decisions based on what it has learned.

Deep Learning and Generative AI

Then, the next advance within Machine Learning is Deep Learning, by which computers actually begin to think like humans, recognizing complex patterns in pictures, text sounds and other data to produce, accurate insights and predictions. The next advance on Deep Learning is Generative AI that actually produces new content, like high-quality text, images, and other content. This is like ChatGPT, which we have heard so much about. It has been used for negotiating contracts for Wal-Mart and ChatGPT-4 passed the Bar Exam in the 90^th percentile! But it does not have the judgment, ethics and discernment needed to actually be a good attorney. The old saying is still true: “garbage in, garbage out.

So, as I said, next month’s Raub Report will discuss the impact of AI on Commercial Real Estate.

Send comments to  raub@wuweicw.com